Worldwide: The Biden Administration: What To Expect From A Changing US-Mexico Relationship

With President Donald Trump's departure from office and the inauguration of President Joe Biden comes the prospect of major shifts in the relationship between the United States and Mexico. President Biden has taken immediate steps to reverse policies of the prior administration in areas that may have a substantial impact on those doing business in Mexico and along the border between the two countries. These changes come at a time when Mexico itself is in a state of flux under the presidency of Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who took office in December 2018.

How these shifts develop in the Biden Administration remains to be seen. The US-Mexico relationship is strong, but also faces new hurdles, including López Obrador's continued populist agenda, new migration challenges, a global pandemic with profound impact in both countries and cross-border criminal justice controversies. Awareness and understanding of these shifts, and of the key players and policies at work, will be critical as businesses position themselves in the initial months of the Biden Administration.

Rule of Law

Presidents Trump and López Obrador shared a close personal relationship that surprised many, given Trump's frequent negative comments about Mexico and its citizens. Their amicable relationship may have been based, in part, on their personal and political similarities. Like Trump, López Obrador offered campaign promises of radical transformation in Mexico and attacked perceived political corruption.

Since taking office, López Obrador has made controversial moves to effectuate the "Fourth Transformation," his preferred name for his administration. In October 2020, the Editorial Board of the Financial Times opined that López Obrador "is revealing himself as an authoritarian populist" through his attacks on Mexico's independent electoral authority, targeting of journalists and winning the supreme court's approval of his proposed referendum on whether to allow the prosecutions of his political predecessors.¹

López Obrador also initially refused to recognize President Biden's electoral victory, delaying his acknowledgment of the president-elect until mid-December 2020.² The Mexican president later criticized companies such as Facebook and Twitter for denying Trump a platform in the wake of the January 6, 2021, insurrection at the Capitol.³

López Obrador has also criticized attorneys whose practice conflicts with his administration's goals. On October 20, 2020, the American Bar Association published an open letter to López Obrador expressing concerns about the rule of law under his administration.⁴ It objected to federal efforts to delegitimize attorneys practicing tax law and to discourage individuals under tax investigation from consulting attorneys, impinging upon the right to legal counsel.⁵ Just a few months later, on February 22, 2021, López Obrador commented that it was a "disgrace" that Mexican lawyers work for foreign companies he claimed want to take advantage of Mexico. He stated that, although these lawyers are free to practice, he hoped that they realize they are committing "treason against their nation." Several Mexican professional lawyers' associations expressed strong disapproval of López Obrador's comments and defended the role of attorneys in guaranteeing access to justice.⁶

Immigration

On January 23, 2021, Biden and López Obrador conducted their first presidential phone call, during which they covered immigration, the COVID-19 pandemic and investment in Latin America. López Obrador reported that Biden promised the United States would spend $4 billion to further develop Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala in the hope that this investment would address the root causes of unlawful migration to the United States.⁷ During the phone call, Biden rejected the previous administration's approach to immigration from Mexico and Central America and declared his plans to revise those policies.

Biden's promises have been put to the test by migrant caravans of thousands of Central Americans hoping to pass through Mexico and into the United States.⁸ López Obrador previously made several major concessions to Trump, including by deploying the Mexican National Guard to patrol for undocumented immigrants attempting to enter the United States and by requiring asylum seekers to remain in Mexico during the pendency of their US asylum cases.⁹

On March 1, 2021, the two leaders met by video to discuss migration, COVID-19, trade and climate change. They also exchanged invitations for in-person visits, without any specific dates.¹⁰ At this meeting, Biden and López Obrador expressed their shared "commit[ment] to immigration policies that recognize the dignity of migrants and the imperative of orderly, safe, and regular migration."¹¹ Biden has attempted to make good on that commitment throughout the month of March, despite an average of over 550 unaccompanied minors crossing into the United States per day. A recordsetting 17,000 minors will likely enter by the end of the month.¹² Biden has flatly refused to expel such minors, instead working to increase capacity in shelters and to place children with family members within the United States.¹³

US-Mexico Trade

During the Trump Administration, the United States and Mexico negotiated and signed the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). The USMCA went into effect in summer 2020, and among other things, replaced the prior North American Free Trade Agreement's investor-state dispute settlement provisions and increased some labor and intellectual property protections.

Footnotes

1 "López Obrador becomes Latin America's new strongman," Financial Times, Oct. 4, 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/ae1f61d8-d421-4b70-97a1-891a5e9d34b1.

2 Joe Walsh, "Mexico and Brazil's Presidents Finally Acknowledge Biden's Win," Forbes, Dec. 15, 2020, https://www.forbes.com/sites/joewalsh/2020/12/15/mexico-and-brazils-presidents-finally-acknowledge-bidens-win-after-weeks-of-waiting/?sh=3893d3fd7e7f; "Mexico's president again declines to recognize Biden win," Reuters, Nov. 25, 2020, https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-election-mexico/mexicos-president-again-declines-to-recognize-biden-win-idUSKBN285294.

3 "Mexico Leader Condemns Twitter, Facebook for Blocking Trump," U.S. News, Jan. 7, 2021, https://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles/2021-01-07/mexico-leader-condemns-twitter-facebook-for-blocking-trump.

4 Patricia Lee Refo, ABA President, Letter to President López Obrador regarding "Respect for the Rule of Law and the right to legal representation," Oct. 20, 2020, https://www.americanbar.org/content/dam/aba/administrative/government_affairs_office/Rule-of-Law%20letter-Mexico-10-20-20.pdf?logActivity=true; https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/mexico-denies-threatening-criminal-charges-to-boost-tax-take/ar-BB1alaQi.

5 These federal efforts occurred in the context of López Obrador's professed goal of increasing tax enforcement; Mexico has the lowest tax intake of the 37 countries that are members of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. Daina Beth Solomon, "Mexican tax campaign threatens rule of law, international attorneys say," Reuters, Sep. 19, 2020, https://www.reuters.com/article/mexico-taxes-idINKBN26A0B6.

6 José Luis Álvarez, "Asociaciones de abogados responden a AMLO: el Estado de derecho no es traición a la patria," el Contribuyente, Feb. 24, 2021, https://www.elcontribuyente.mx/2021/02/asociaciones-de-abogados-responden-a-amlo-el-estado-de-derecho-no-es-traicion-a-la-patria/.

7 Mark Stevenson, Rob Gillies and Aamer Madhani, "Mexican leader says Biden offers $4B for Central America," Associated Press, Jan. 23, 2021, https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-north-america-mexico-justin-trudeau-coronavirus-pandemic-070159520dd892ad0f4233cfec7e2827.

8 "Migrant caravan: Mexico presses US to reform immigration policies," BBC News, Jan. 19, 2021, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-55714865.

9 "Mexican president defends restrictive immigration policies," AP News, Dec. 17, 2020, https://apnews.com/article/international-news-mexico-coronavirus-pandemic-immigration-central-america-bfc07e78d2c5ca2b1fe2a72e0d37cf34.

10 Tal Axelrod, "Biden to hold virtual bilateral meeting with Mexican president," The Hill, Feb. 26, 2021, https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/540803-biden-to-hold-virtual-bilateral-meeting-with-mexican-president; U.S.-Mexico Joint Declaration, The White House Briefing Room, Mar. 1, 2021, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/03/01/u-s-mexico-joint-declaration/.

11 US-Mexico Joint Declaration, The White House Briefing Room, Mar. 1, 2021, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/03/01/u-s-mexico-joint-declaration/.

12 Nick Miroff and Maria Sacchetti, "Migrant teens and children have challenged three administrations, but Biden faces rush with no precedent," Washington Post, Mar. 22, 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/03/22/unaccompanied-minors-immigration-obama-trump-biden/.

13 Claire Hansen, "Biden Defends Administration on Immigration, Promises to Improve System," U.S. News, Mar. 25, 2021, https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2021-03-25/biden-defends-administration-on-immigration-promises-to-improve-system.

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