In the run-up to the June 23rd EU Referendum when Brits will vote on whether to stay in or leave the EU, immigration has become quite the centerpiece of the debate, sideling even the economy. Advocates of Brexit believe that leaving the EU will allow UK to have more control over immigration and would enable it put in place a system to decide how many EU citizens can come to live and work in the UK. According to data released in May 2016, the net migration to the UK stands at a record 333,000 (http://www.express.co.uk). These latest figures add more fuel to the ongoing debate.
However, one can say with certainty that Brexit would raise fundamental questions about the immigration regime in the UK. Freedom of movement of people is one of the four principles on which the EU single market is founded, the others being free movement of goods, capital and services. EU departure could mean tighter controls on the migration of EU nationals; if Britain were to follow in the footsteps of Norway, the free movement could remain largely unaffected. Norway is not a member of the EU but has access to the EU single market as part of the European Economic Area (EEA). Britain is likely to negotiate for the free movement of workers in return for an agreement for the free movement of goods, but how these negotiations between the UK and EU will pan out is anybody's guess.
Upon Brexit, if the UK does decide to impose restrictions on EU nationals, it will be interesting to see what requirements for work visas are introduced since a majority of EU nationals come to the UK for the purpose of work.
Possibility of a New Less- Skilled Worker Program?
Under Britain's existing immigration policies, most non-EU citizens can be employed in graduate level occupations. There are very limited options for non-EU citizens to come to the UK for unskilled or low paid sector jobs. The unskilled jobs in UK are filled in for the most part by EU citizens under the current free movement that EU allows. If free movement came to an end, UK employers such as hotels, restaurants and farms who heavily rely on EU workers could be adversely affected. If the new immigration system makes it harder to recruit EU nationals these labor intensive sectors could potentially suffer from a staff shortage.
Immigration Status of EU citizens living in the UK and Brits in other parts of the EU
In the UK, generally, permanent residence status is obtained after gaining five years of residence in the UK. Many of the EU migrants living in the UK have been here for more than 5 years and could apply for permanent residence assuming that the immigration policy to that extent remains unchanged. For those EU citizens who have been in the country for less than five years, there is uncertainty about what their immigration status would be upon Britain's exit. It is likely that these individuals would not lose their existing rights except upon losing their job. There is also uncertainty as to what rules would apply to new EU citizens coming to Britain post the referendum but before any formulation of the new immigration system. These issues might be addressed as part of the agreement with the EU.
For Brits living and working in the EU, it could be even more complex. There are many member states of the EU and how each member state may respond would be hard to predict. Likely, the member states may impose the same restrictions on Brits in their respective regions as are imposed by Britain on the EU citizens. That might possibly translate into a registration regime for Brits and a work permit regime for new Brit entrants.
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