The Matheson Spring Horizon Tracker has just been distributed to our clients this week with an 'as of' date of 10 March 2024. In the past, the publication of the Government Legislative Programme has been the catalyst for our tracking activity. However, in recent times we have waited for the end of the legislative session so that we can document progress on the programme. Accordingly, we have waited until the Dail recess for St. Patrick's Day to cover as much of the Oireachtas activity for this session as possible. Reflecting this timing, we also cover legislative and regulatory developments from the EU, in addition to regulatory initiatives from significant regulators such as the Central Bank.
Although change is always on the horizon so to speak, in this particular moment change seems to be more rapid but perhaps more importantly, more significant. This may be a reflection of the geopolitical 'mood' as it were, with war continuing in Ukraine and then the Hamas attack on Israel of 7 October 2023, leading to further conflict and crisis in Gaza. We also see political change coming with elections in Europe where it is expected by many that there will be a shift to right wing politics in the European Parliament. That said, the recent election of Donald Tusk as Prime Minister of Poland would put that prediction into doubt. There will also be elections in the UK, where similarly, Labour seems to be the stronger party. Later in the year in November there will be the US Presidential election, where primaries this week have confirmed that this will be a re-run of 2020 between current President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. Finally, closer to home, it is possible that 2024 will be an election year in Ireland also, although the Government has continually indicated its intention to continue to full term until 2025.
There is significant change in the commercial real estate sector. In the Autumn/Winter Tracker we documented initiatives regarding building emissions from the EU. This continues to be a live issue with the European Parliament adopting plans this week to decarbonise buildings, which account for 36% of greenhouse-gas emissions, by 2030. In this Tracker we describe the Green Lease Toolkit, launched by the UK Better Buildings Partnership which is a helpful guide for those involved in commercial leasing, in addition to tax implications around zoned residential land holdings and additional changes regarding commercial rates.
We also continue to track significant changes in the international tax landscape with a continuation of our description of OECD and EU driven policy changes. Completion of Pillar One negotiations are now due to end in March 2024 with the European Commission planning to implement the OECD's Pillar One by January 2025. And, in Employment, although we see a bedding down of issues around rights to remote working and a 'normalisation' of the working from home culture which really began in earnest during COVID, the significant change on our horizon relates to gig economy and platform workers, driven in part, but not in whole by the Supreme Court 2023 decision in the Domino's Pizza case. This has been followed by forthcoming Guidelines from Revenue for identifying contracts of employment and distinguishing these from other contractual working relationships which are described in our Tracker.
A very interesting recent development, perhaps reflecting the shift in EU politics described above, but perhaps more related to the terms of the legislation specifically, was a set-back for the latest in EU sustainability directives. Our Corporate practice has documented the non-approval of the CS3D in a Council vote on 23 February 2024.
Our Commercial Litigation and Disputes Resolution practice area continues to monitor developments in the administration of justice including anticipated increases in resourcing in terms of expanding the number of members of the judiciary and increasing accompanying resources. Changes to the laws on third party funding are still on the agenda, and if these changes follow other jurisdictions and are accompanied by changes in consumer class actions which we have described in previous Trackers, Insights and at Knowledge Insight events, this could have a significant impact on litigation as it relates to corporate activity, both in relation to consumers and beyond.
In our Financial Services sections generally, we continue to focus on green and sustainable finance initiatives. The expected shift to right wing politics at European level coupled with inherent difficulties which we have already identified in previous Trackers, Insights and Knowledge Events relating to taxonomy and regulatory terms, may have a cooling effect on green funding. Finally, again picking up the consumer focussed theme, our Financial Services Regulation documents very recent developments regarding the Central Bank's Consultation on the Consumer Protection Code. The continued focus on these matters effectively amounts to a significant change in relation to retail finance activity.
For further information please consult the Spring 2024 Edition of the Matheson Horizon Tracker.
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