Prepared for: New York State IBEW Utility Labor Council
Rochester Building and Construction Trades Council
Central and Northern New York Building and Construction Trades Council

I. Executive Summary

At the request of the New York State IBEW Utility Labor Council, the Rochester Building and Construction Trades Council and the Central and Northern New York Building and Construction Trades Council, The Brattle Group has estimated the value of the nuclear plants located in Upstate New York (Ginna Nuclear Generating Station in Wayne County and FitzPatrick Nuclear Power Plant and Nine Mile Point Nuclear Generating Station in Oswego County) to the state's economy.1

Our analysis has determined that nuclear plants operating in Upstate New York:

  • contribute approximately $3.16 billion to state gross domestic product (GDP) ($5.25 billion in gross output).
  • account for about 24,800 in-state full time jobs (direct and secondary).
  • help keep electricity prices lower than they would otherwise be – New York consumers would pay over $1.7 billion annually (2015$) and almost $15 billion in the next ten years (on a present value basis) absent the Upstate nuclear plants.
  • are responsible for $144 million in net state tax revenues annually, including more than $60 million in annual state and local property taxes.
  • avoid almost 16 million tons of CO2 emissions annually, that equates to a societal value of almost $700 million annually based on federal estimates.

These values reflect the incremental contribution of these nuclear plants to the economy, measured by comparing the performance of New York's economy with and without these nuclear plants. This approach nets off the contribution of the alternative generation that would be necessary if these nuclear plants did not exist, to determine their incremental contribution. Absent the nuclear energy from its Upstate plants, New York's economy would rely more heavily on existing natural gas-fired generating plants. This greater reliance on fossil generation would mean higher electricity prices – wholesale prices would be higher on average in New York. It is this effect on electricity prices that accounts for the majority of overall incremental economic impact of these nuclear plants. Note that these measures do not reflect the impacts outside New York, although the absence of in-state nuclear plants will have significant additional consequences beyond the state's borders.

The absence of New York's Upstate nuclear plants would also result in much higher carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and greater emissions of criteria pollutants, such as nitrogen oxides (NOX) and sulfur dioxide (SO2). These impacts are not limited to New York, because air pollution impacts can cross state borders – they are often regional in the case of criteria pollutants, and global in the case of carbon. Large-scale renewable energy probably would not substitute significantly for nuclear; intermittent renewable generation is not a direct substitute for the baseload profile of nuclear.

Absent New York's Upstate nuclear plants, New York consumers would pay more for electricity, the economy would suffer both in terms of GDP and jobs, and New York would face substantially higher emissions of CO2 and other pollutants.

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Footnote

1. The analysis described in this paper is an extension and refinement of a previous study that looked at the economic value of all the nuclear generators in New York. That study was done in conjunction with a nationwide study of the economic impact of the U.S. nuclear industry, and several other statespecific studies. The current study examines a subset of New York’s nuclear plants, and also updates and refines the characterization of electricity markets to more closely reflect the specific features of New York’s electricity markets.

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