United States: Florida Government and Politics Weekly Update (Week of August 23, 2010)

Politics: Final Round of Polling Shows Solid Leads for Attorney General McCollum and Rep. Meek in the August 24 Primary Elections

Two polls conducted just before Florida's August 24, 2010 primary elections show solid leads for Attorney General Bill McCollum in the race for the Republican gubernatorial nomination and U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-17^th Congressional District) in the Democratic contest for the U.S. Senate.

In polls of likely voters conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research from August 17 through August 19, 2010, Mr. McCollum led his opponent, businessman Rick Scott, by nine percentage points, and Mr. Meek led his opponent, real estate investor Jeff Greene, by 12 percentage points.

In the Republican race, Mr. McCollum was the choice of 45 percent of respondents, followed by Mr. Scott at 36 percent, other candidates at four percent, and 15 percent undecided. For Mr. McCollum, the latest Mason-Dixon poll represents an 11-point gain over his performance in a Mason-Dixon poll taken one week earlier, and a turnaround from a Mason-Dixon poll taken from August 2 through August 4, in which Mr. Scott led Mr. McCollum by 37 percent to 31 percent.

Among Democrats, Mr. Meek has led Mr. Greene in all of the Mason-Dixon polls. In the August 17 – 19 poll, 42 percent favored Mr. Meek, followed by Mr. Greene with 30 percent, other candidates with five percent, and 23 percent undecided. The narrowest margin was in the August 2 – 4 poll, in which Mr. Meek led Mr. Greene by 33 percent to 29 percent.

Mason-Dixon Polling & Research surveyed 500 likely Democratic primary voters and 500 likely Republican primary voters from August 17 through August 19. The margin of error was 4.5 percentage points.

Polls taken by the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute from August 11 through August 16, 2010 show similar results. Among likely Republican primary voters, Mr. McCollum leads with 44 percent, followed by Mr. Scott with 35 percent, others at two percent, and 19 percent undecided. In a Quinnipiac poll taken a month earlier, Mr. Scott had an 11-point lead over Mr. McCollum.

The Quinnipiac survey of likely Democratic primary voters showed Mr. Meek leading with 35 percent, Mr. Greene in second place with 28 percent, former Miami Mayor Maurice Ferre at six percent, others at two percent, and 29 percent undecided. A month earlier, Mr. Greene held a 10-point lead over Mr. Meek in a Quinnipiac poll.

The Quinnipiac poll surveyed 807 likely Republican primary voters and 814 likely Democratic primary voters, with a margin of error of 3.5 percent for the Republican primary questions and a margin of error of 3.4 percent for the Democratic primary questions.

At the same time, Quinnipiac also polled registered voters on the general election contests for governor and U.S. Senate. For governor, state Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink, the Democratic candidate, had a small lead over both Republican contenders. With Mr. McCollum as the Republican candidate, Ms. Sink has the support of 31 percent of respondents, followed by Mr. McCollum with 29 percent, unaffiliated candidate Bud Chiles with 12 percent, others with two percent, and 26 percent either undecided or not voting. If Mr. Scott is the Republican candidate, Ms. Sink leads with 33 percent, followed by Mr. Scott with 29 percent, Mr. Chiles with 12 percent, others with one percent, and 24 percent undecided or not voting.

In the U.S. Senate contest, Gov. Charlie Crist, running without party affiliation, is in the lead regardless of whether the Democratic candidate is Mr. Meek or Mr. Greene. With Mr. Meek in the race, Gov. Crist has the support of 39 percent of respondents, former House Speaker Marco Rubio, the Republican candidate, is supported by 32 percent, Mr. Meek is supported by 16 percent, others get one percent of the vote, and 13 percent either are undecided or would not vote.

The results are almost identical with Mr. Greene as the Democratic candidate. With Mr. Greene in the race, Gov. Crist leads with 40 percent, followed by Mr. Rubio with 32 percent, Mr. Greene with 15 percent, and 13 percent undecided or not voting.

The general election poll surveyed 1,096 registered voters from August 11 through August 16 and has a three-percent margin of error.

Politics: Democratic Gubernatorial Candidate Sink Taps Former State Sen. Smith as Her Running Mate

On August 17, 2010, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Sink announced that former state Sen. Rod Smith (D-Alachua) would be her candidate for lieutenant governor in the 2010 general election.

While in the Florida Senate, Mr. Smith was perceived as a moderate who was well-liked by leaders of both parties. In 2006, he ran in the Democratic primary for governor but lost to U.S. Rep. Jim Davis. He also served as state attorney for the 8^th Judicial Circuit from 1993 through 2000.

Neither of the Republican candidates for governor has yet announced his choice of a running mate. Speculation about possible running mates for Mr. McCollum has focused on several current or former state representatives: Holly Benson of Pensacola, Jennifer Carroll of Jacksonville, Anitere Flores of Miami, and Adam Hasner of Delray Beach. For Mr. Scott, the most widely mentioned names are Sen. Paula Dockery of Lakeland and Rep. Baxter Troutman of Winter Haven.

Utility Regulation: Public Service Commission Nominating Council Sends Gov. Crist Seven Nominees for Two Vacancies

On August 19, 2010, the Florida Public Service Commission Nominating Council recommended seven candidates for two vacancies on the Florida Public Service Commission. Gov. Charlie Crist will have 30 days to select replacements for outgoing commissioners Nancy Argenziano and Nathan Skop. The two new members of the five-member commission will take office on January 1, 2011.

The seven recommended candidates are:

• Term-limited Sen. Lee Constantine (R-Altamonte Springs)
• Former Public Service Commission Executive Director Mary Bane
• Former Missouri Public Service Commission member Connie Murray
• State Senate legislative analyst Kevin Wiehle
• West Palm Beach Assistant City Administrator Eduardo Balbis
• Former Progress Energy engineer James S. Bausmark
• Former Tampa Assistant City Attorney Julie I. Brown

Economy: Florida's July Unemployment Rate Rises to 11.5 Percent

Florida's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for July 2010 was 11.5 percent, according to information released by the Agency for Workforce Innovation on August 20, 2010. The July rate represented a 0.1-percentage-point increase over the June 2010 rate of 11.4 percent. Florida unemployment in July was two percentage points higher than the national unemployment rate of 9.5 percent.

Although the unemployment rate increased, July also saw an increase of 5,700 jobs over the prior month and a 12-month increase of 2,700 jobs, the first year-over-year increase since 2007.

Florida unemployment remains fifth highest in the nation, exceeded only by Nevada (14.3 percent), Michigan (13.1 percent), California (12.3 percent), and Rhode Island (11.9 percent).

The counties with the highest unemployment rates for July 2010 were Hendry County (19.7 percent), Flagler County (15.6 percent), St. Lucie County (15.2 percent), Indian River County (14.9 percent), and Okeechobee County (14.6 percent). The counties with the lowest July 2010 unemployment rates were Walton County (7.5 percent), Liberty County (7.6 percent), Monroe and Okaloosa counties (7.9 percent each), Lafayette County (8.2 percent), and Franklin County (8.4 percent).

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