Introduction

With the 2022 midterm elections now over—save for a number of undecided races—and Congress having returned for a lame-duck session, Americans for the third consecutive President have elected a new House majority in a midterm election to disrupt unified government. Democrats will maintain majority control of the Senate, with a December 6 runoff election in Georgia determining whether that majority is 50 or 51 seats. While divided government may suggest forthcoming legislative gridlock, since 1969, just eight of 27 sessions of Congress have seen one party wield full control of both the legislative and executive branches, and such unity has only lasted for consecutive congressional sessions on two occasions. As outlined below, policymaking at the federal level will continue to be active, but legislative success hinges on the ability of Republicans and Democrats to forge agreements given the extremely tight margins in both the House and Senate. Meanwhile, House Republicans will be motivated to increase oversight of the Executive Branch and pursue legislation reflecting conservative priorities, which Democrats will attempt to block in alignment with White House and Democratic objectives, as both parties seek positions of strength heading into the 2024 general election. President Biden also is expected to bypass Congress where possible by pursuing executive agency action to advance his priorities.

This report examines the results of the election and what to expect in the coming weeks in the lame-duck session of the 117th Congress and the new 118th Congress, amidst a divided government and the next election looming where control of both Congress and the White House again will be at stake.

We are pleased to provide the below analysis and key takeaways:

  • Leadership Elections
  • 2022 Lame Duck
  • Preview of 118th Congress
  • An appendix with a recap of (1) the 2022 election results and (2) potential committee leadership in the 118th Congress

Leadership Elections

Republicans

House Leadership

For House Republicans, leadership elections took place on Tuesday, November 15.

  • Speaker: Kevin McCarthy (R-CA)
  • Majority Leader: Steve Scalise (R-LA)
  • Majority Whip: Tom Emmer (R-MN)
  • Conference Chair: Elise Stefanik (R-NY)
  • Policy Committee Chair: Gary Palmer (R-AL)
  • NRCC Chair: Richard Hudson (R-NC)
  • Conference Vice Chair: Mike Johnson (R-LA)

Senate Leadership

For Senate Republicans, leadership elections took place on Wednesday, November 16.

  • Minority Leader: Mitch McConnell (R-KY)
  • Minority Whip: John Thune (R-SD)
  • Conference Chair: John Barrasso (R-WY)
  • Policy Committee Chair: Joni Ernst (R-IA)
  • NRSC Chair: Steve Daines (R-MT)
  • Conference Vice Chair: Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV)

Democrats

House Leadership

Speaker Pelosi announced that she will not seek another term in leadership as the top Democrat in the House but will continue to serve in Congress. Similarly, Majority Leader Hoyer will remain in Congress but not seek an elected leadership position. Both Pelosi and Hoyer are seeking to usher in a new generation of Democrat leaders in the House.

In addition to those who have already announced their candidacy for top leadership positions in the House, Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), Katherine Clark (D-MA), and Pete Aguilar (D-CA), along with Jim Clyburn (D-SC), are now expected to be in the mix as well, changing the entire dynamic in a significant way. As a result, we may see some previously declared leadership candidates reassess in the coming days.

House Democrats are expected to begin their leadership elections on Wednesday, November 30.

Senate Leadership

A vacancy will be created for the Assistant Democratic Leader post as Majority Leader Schumer has nominated Patty Murray (D-WA) as the Senate president pro tempore. With no additional changes in leadership expected, an open question remains about who will be chosen to lead the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC).

Senate Democrats are expected to hold their leadership elections during the week of December 5.

  • Majority Leader: Chuck Schumer (D-NY)
  • Majority Whip: Richard Durbin (D-IL)
  • Assistant Democratic Leader: Open
  • Chair of Policy & Communications Committee: Debbie Stabenow (D-MI)
  • Vice Chair of Conference: Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)
  • Vice Chair of Conference: Mark Warner (D-VA)
  • Chair of Steering Committee: Amy Klobuchar (D-MN)
  • Chair of Outreach: Bernie Sanders (I-VT)
  • Vice Chair of Outreach: Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV)
  • Vice Chair of Policy & Communications Committee: Joe Machin (D-WV)
  • Vice Chair of Policy & Communications Committee: Cory Brooker (D-NJ)
  • Secretary of the Conference: Tammy Baldwin (D-WI)
  • DSCC Chair: Open

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