A Google search for "Bitcoin tipping point" returns 165,000 results dating as far back as 2013. That's a lot of talk. But now, four years on, there are compelling reasons to think that we're getting closer to that tipping point – and to think that the decision last year by Jersey's regulators and politicians to create a "regulatory sandbox" for crypto-currencies was the right one.
Last month the price of Bitcoin made headlines for hitting a three-year high, bypassing the $1,120-mark, before quickly dropping away again. That price is still some way short of the $1,216 record set four years ago, but given the Brexit referendum result and the result of the US presidential election, Bitcoin is far from the only currency to be affected by uncertainty.
In fact, Bitcoin is no more or less volatile than fiat currencies were at the point that they were introduced – and there's speculation that the price will break the $2,000 barrier this year.
More important than the price is the fact that the number of weekly Bitcoin transactions has more or less doubled in the last 12 months, showing that the use of crypto-currency (not just Bitcoin, but also Ripple, Ethereum and others) is becoming more frequent and more widespread.
And that's what suggests that we're approaching the "tipping point" – the phrase popularised by Malcolm Gladwell's 2000 bestseller referring to the moment in which a trend or behaviour achieves critical mass and jumps into the mainstream (think about the points in the last few years in which mobile phones, social media accounts or online shopping went from fringe to ubiquity).
For all the talk about anonymity, one of the main selling points for Bitcoin from a personal as well as a commercial point of view remains the ability to transfer money across borders quickly and without losing value through exchange rates or transmission fees. That has fuelled use particularly in China, where crypto-currencies are widely thought to be a popular way of getting around measures put in place to stop people moving money out of the country.
The increasing usage of Bitcoin suggests that the work by Jersey's politicians and regulators to create a "regulatory sandbox" for crypto-currencies was worthwhile and prescient. The sandbox allows developers and innovators working with virtual currencies to build, test and experiment with products, services, business models and delivery mechanisms in a live environment without immediately incurring all the normal regulatory consequences and costs.
To require start-up developers and innovators to bear the full brunt of compliance with Jersey financial services laws and regulations would limit such activity taking place in the Island. And by setting a turnover threshold of £150,000 (the "economic threshold" test) before they have to be subject to active supervision under the Proceeds of Crime (Supervisory Bodies) (Jersey) Law 2008 and be liable for an annual fee, the government and regulator have created an environment in which testing and development of virtual currency applications can flourish.
Since then, the Channel Islands Securities Exchange has become the first exchange anywhere in the world to list a regulated Bitcoin fund – the Global Advisors Bitcoin Investment Fund PLC – which shows that the Island is developing its regulatory apparatus and technical expertise in this area.
The brains behind that firm are not alone - over the last 12 months most major banks and major financial services firms have been linked to pilot blockchain/Bitcoin projects moving to proof of concept projects, and we can expect to see roll-out in 2017.
No one knows when the "tipping point" for crypto-currencies will be reached – but it's clear that it has the potential to disrupt currency in the same way that Spotify and iTunes have disrupted music sales, that Uber has disrupted taxi services and that eBay and Amazon have disrupted retail.
Jersey appears well-placed to take advantage when the tipping point arrives.
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