Zambia:
2024 Budget Bulletin
12 October 2023
SNG Grant Thornton
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2024 BUDGET COMMENTARY
The 2024 National Budget was presented by the Honourable
Minister of Finance and National Planning to the National Assembly
on 29 September 2023.
The theme of the 2024 budget is "Unlocking Economic
Potential".
The country is projected to achieve a positive 2.7% of Gross
Domestic Product (GDP) growth in 2023, compared to 5.2% in
2022.
The slowdown in growth is mainly attributed to:
- Challenges arising from the Russia- Ukraine war;
- Delayed conclusion of the negotiations with the country's
creditors; and
- Weak performance that was recorded in the mining sector.
Projected GDP Growth in 2024
The strategy to achieve the growth objectives will be founded on
four thematic areas as outlined in the Presidential Address
delivered on the Official Opening of the Third Session of the
Thirteenth National Assembly. The Address provided the policy
direction as laid out in the Eighth National Development Plan and
the 2024 budget. The four thematic areas are:
- Economic transformation and job creation;
- Human and Social development;
- Environmental sustainability; and
- Good governance environment.
In order to achieve the budget objectives and targets for 2024,
Government has proposed to spend K177.9 billion (2023:K167.3
billion).
In order to achieve the budget objectives and targets for 2024,
the Government has proposed to spend K177.9 billion (2023:K167.3
billion) .
The allocation of the budgeted expenditure in percentage terms
is as follows:
Overall Comments |
Challenges |
- Social Sector spending in health, education and social security
has seen an increase in proposed spending.
- The New Dawn Administration has produced a budget that aims to
continue to empower people at the constituency level by increasing
the Constituency Development Fund (CDF) from K28.3 million in 2023
to K30.6 million per constituency in 2024.
- Furthermore, people at the local level will continue to make
decisions on how to spend the CDF based on guidelines to be
improved upon and the CDF Act that will be revised.
- The need for efficient and effective procurement of goods and
services so as to achieve the right price, right quality and
delivery on time has been emphasised.
- Completion of the restructuring of the external debt remains an
urgent objective so as to deal with the principal and interest
arrears as well as have an agreed way forward with the
lenders.
- Job creation for the youth continues to be a priority with the
intended recruitment of 5,400 teachers and 4,000 health
workers.
- Furthermore, measures have been suggested to create a conducive
environment for both local and foreign investors to invest in Multi
Facility Economic Zones (MFEZ) and Industrial Parks as well as
partnering with government in various capital projects through
Public Private Partnerships (PPPs).
- Mining is to receive particular attention through revised tax
framework so as to increase production from 800,000 tonnes
currently to 3,000,000 tonnes in 8 years.
|
- The implementation of the Budget is dependent on Government
continuing to meet its revenue targets.
- The Budget faces the following risks:
-
- Increased infrastructure development costs arising from
suspended works and related consequential contract penalties,
interest and potential legal costs;
- Any slowness in mindset change by the implementors of projects
at the local level under CDF;
- Continuation of the Russia/Ukraine conflict and the
consequential impact on oil and gas prices, higher interest rates
and food prices;
- Any low uptake by investors who are expected to partner with
Government in the Public Private Partnership (PPP) as a model of
infrastructure development;
- Weaker copper revenues on account of lower ore grades and
delayed investments in the sector; as well as weakening of copper
prices;
- Exchange rate fluctuations on account of high demand for
importation of commodities and foreign debt service;
- Climate change effects that pose a risk in terms of both food
security and hydropower generation;
- Inflationary pressures due to exchange rate passthrough effects
and climate induced events such as food shortages; and
- Subdued global growth due to contraction of China's
economy, a main market for Zambia's copper exports.
|
Presidential Comment on opening of Parliament
During the official opening of the Third Session of the
Thirteenth National Assembly, His Excellency Mr Hakainde Hichilema,
the Seventh President of the Republic of Zambia, outlined the
policy direction that the New Dawn Government will take.
The theme of his address was "Building On The
Socio-Economic Gains for Improved Livelihoods And A Better
Zambia".
The President emphasised the need to:-
- Unite and build upon individual and collective
achievements.
- Improve production, productivity, value addition, investment
and trade.
- Continue implementing the policy of positive discrimination in
the procurement process by buying from local manufacturers and
other value adding businesses.
- Support science and technology innovations.
- Build on gains made in education, health, water and sanitation
sectors.
- Address vulnerability and inequality among people.
- Achieve economic growth that is environmentally
sustainable.
- Take services and decision making closer to the people
following the national decentralisation policy.
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