Here's a look at the leave application decisions that the Supreme Court of Canada will be releasing on July 27, 2023.

Each week, we'll be providing a short blog post that summarizes some of the upcoming cases and gives a prediction of the probability that leave will be granted. These predictions will be based on our proprietary machine learning model and dataset of every leave application decision released by the Supreme Court of Canada from January 1, 2018 onward.

Each week, we'll group cases into four categories:

  • Cases to Watch – These are cases where our model predicts greater than a 25% chance that leave will be granted. These cases have a much better than average chance that leave will be granted. While this doesn't mean that all of them will get leave, they are worth watching as strong candidates.
  • Possible Contenders – These are cases where our model predicts between a 5% and 25% chance that leave will be granted. These cases have an average to somewhat above-average chance of getting leave. While most cases in this category won't get leave, on average, we expect to see a healthy minority of cases in this category being granted leave.
  • Unlikely Contenders – These are cases where our model predicts between a 1% and 5% chance that the case will get leave. The safe bet is against leave being granted in these cases, but we do expect to see it from time to time.
  • Long-Shots – These are cases where our model predicts a less than 1% chance that the case will get leave. Although it will happen from time to time, it would be an outlier for our model for these cases to be granted leave. We will not be providing summaries for these cases.

If this is your first time reading our weekly SCC leave predictions blog, have a look at an explanation and caveats about our model here.

THIS WEEK'S CASES

There are 16 leave application decisions coming out on July 27, 2023. Our model only predicts the probabilities of successful leave applications in cases where leave was sought from the Court of Appeal. We will not comment or provide a prediction on cases where leave was sought directly from a Superior Court decision or on cases in which we are involved. That leaves 16 cases in which we'll give a prediction.

You can find a detailed summary of all of the cases that are up for leave decisions this week here.

Possible Contenders

Gaétan Dostie, et al c Procureur général du Canada

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 15% chance of getting leave.

Antonio Accurso c Sa Majesté le Roi

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 10% chance of getting leave.

Tomasz Turkiewicz, a sole proprietor c.o.b. as Tomasz Turkiewicz Custom Masonry Homes v Bricklayers, Masons Independent Union of Canada, Local 1, et al

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 10% chance of getting leave.

Enercare Home & Commercial Services Limited, et al v UNIFOR Local 975, et al

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 9% chance of getting leave.

Juusi Alasuak Aullaluk v His Majesty the King

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 9% chance of getting leave.

1921645 Alberta Ltd v FCT Insurance Company Ltd., et al

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 7% chance of getting leave.

Nawaf Al-Enzi v His Majesty the King

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 5% chance of getting leave.

Unlikely Contenders

Robert Glegg, et al v Hazel Flores and Armando Flores, et al.

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 3% chance of getting leave.

Barbara De Angelis v Annie Siermy, et al

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 2% chance of getting leave.

Brian Wayne Flight c.o.b as Heritage Painters & Services, et al. v Julie Leblanc

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 1% chance of getting leave.

Chang Jiu Chen v Brookfield Residential (Ontario) Limited

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 1% chance of getting leave.

Long-Shots

Shirley Anne Hok v Dawn Michelle McMunn, et al.

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

Satyam Patel v Robert Younghusband McMurtry, et al.

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

Robert Weidenfeld v Natalie Weidenfeld, et al.

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

Jason Sutton v Alison Sutton

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

Diana Michelle Daniella Hordo v State Farm Mutual Automobile Insurance Company

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

The content of this article is intended to provide a general guide to the subject matter. Specialist advice should be sought about your specific circumstances.